Do you believe the weather forecasts?Keeper82 - 13 Answers
The weather is certainly unpredictable. When I want to know what it's doing outside, I look out the window. If I see clouds it's cloudy, if I see the sun, it's sunny, if I see storm clouds on the horizon, expect rain and possibly thunder, if I see rain and wind then it's stormy....etc.
Sometimes it's good to get the long range forecast, but you have to listen closely to it. Sometimes the bad or good weather only affects PARTS of your state, province or country. I know that here in Canada, when a snow storm advisory is in affect, it doesn't necessarily mean the whole area or province will be affected. Only certain parts of the province or territory will be affected while others might get nothing or only a few snowflakes. When a hurricane comes up the east coast of North America, my city, (Halifax) usually gets the tail end of them, which by that time is reduced to a tropical storm. Other maritime provinces or parts of Nova Scotia may not even be affected.
It depends on the area in which you live and the areas that the forecast says will be hit hardest. If your having sunshine after a week long preparation for heavy rain, don't complain. You might have misunderstood the report that initially never included your area.
I covered this exact phenomenon in one of my university classes. Basically, our current level of knowledge and technology only allows us to predict the GENERAL state of weather that will occur in the future. That is, we can't give an EXACT report of what will happen; what we CAN do, is give a prediction of what will happen. So let's say instead of saying, "it will be exactly 17 degrees Celsius tomorrow with rain", what we can say is "it will be between 15-19 degrees Celsius tomorrow, and there is a 60% likelihood of rain."
The problem that arises out of this, is that people want and expect certainty from weather forecasts, so one of two things happen. Ether the forecast lies and says with 100% certainty that something will happen, and when it doesn't, people get angry. Or option two, the weather forecast is honest and states a range / probability of weather, and people dislike that as well because it's not a 100% certain answer.
I think option two is better, because scientific uncertainty is a very real part of human understanding of our planet. People have to understand that we can't be fully certain with the weather because of how complex it is. It's wrong to blame or distrust the weather forecast, because they are doing the best with our current level of understanding and technology.
Yes and no, if you read a little bit about science you will see that the weather forecasts that predict the weather in the next couple of days are actually true. Most of the time. Because that is something that scientists can predict. However, science cannot predict the weather that we will experience in the next couple of months. That is just beyond science, and I think we will never be able to predict it that way.
Whether predictions are fine as long as they are just for a couple of days because if you take into consideration the type of weather that we experience for the past week. You can predict somewhat accurately the weather that will come during the next couple of days. predicting the weather for months is something that anyone can not do. No matter what they tell you no one can predict the weather that we will experience in a month or two. It's just not possible.
In my area it is easy to predict the weather.
Say sunny and warm/hot. and you will be correct 300+ days of the year.
Since the average minimum to maximum temperature shift is 30f. take the morning low and add 30 and you will have the next days high.
This week they went out on a limb and issued a "heat warning". That is temps reaching 110f (41c) and above. I do not know the official but my thermometer was at 111 at 10:00. since I was out shoveling in our field I did not bother looking after that.
to answer the question: Our weather prediction is pretty good. even out to the 10 day forecast. during the summer they do have trouble predicting thunder storms. Or haboob's as they call them. These are basically a wall of dirt that will roll over the valley and block out the sun.. They can never tell if the moisture level is enough to cause precipitation.
It's funny because I don't believe it but then again one time when I ignored it ,I got stuck in the middle of snowstorm with my husband. It said there would be snowstorm which seemed to happen every week! and I had a plan to go out with a friend that day and my husband was supposed to pick me up from work after. I got carried away with my friend in her house that we didn't know it was like a fricken blizzard outside. My husband and I ended up getting stranded in the middle of snow and luckily ,a friend had a big truck and passed us. They picked us up and let us stay in their apartment until the next day ,we brought shovel to shovel our car out from the snow. My husband checks the weather if he needs to mow the lawn. If it say it's going to rain next week then he'd do it this week just to be safe....
I've had the same watches (note, watches, not warnings) in my area. A watch means that conditions are favorable to certain things to happen, so keep your eyes open. It doesn't mean that it absolutely will happen.
Weather is not an exact science, and probably never will be. However, it certainly has gotten much, much better in the last ten or fifteen years.
The weather system causing the problems as of now in my area makes things hard to predict. A stalled front is laying over several states. Clusters of storms just develop and move along the front. It's nearly impossible to predict how many clusters will develop or exactly when or where they will strike. As far as I'm concerned, I'd rather have the information the forecasters can give me than nothing at all.
In my area, the weather forecasts tend to be pretty accurate. I especially pay a great deal of attention to the "torcon" values which indicate the statistical possibility of a tornado in the area. For example, if the torcon value is 5, there is a 5 out of 10 chance there will be a tornado in your area. The values range from 0 to 10.
Over the past week, when torcon values of 6 or above were assigned to regions on the map, a town or towns in that area were hit by tornadoes.
We've had forecasts of rain for the past four days in my area and we did indeed receive rain every single day. My sump pump in the basement has been clicking on and off quite regularly over the past few days.
The weather forecasts are much more reliable than they used to be.
I use weather forecasts more so as an educated direction of where the weather is going.
To put it simply, all they are doing really is guessing the future. Given, they are making their guesses based off proven and reliable scientific information, satellite imaging, and historical data. However, mother nature will ultimately do what mother nature wants to do. And regardless of what technology we have, or how huge our brains are, we can't predict what will come 100% of the time.
But for the most part, at least in my neck of the woods, forecasts are relatively reliable.
I believe the weather forecasts in my area is probably right or close enough. They are wrong sometimes but there are way too many variables to get it right all the time. Predicting the weather is very difficult. So I expect them to be wrong some of the time. Stop listening to the weather forecasts and try to predict the weather yourself. Maybe then you will appreciate the weather forecasts more.
You are complaining because the weather is nice. I would be glad they were wrong.
I live in south Florida, and the forecasts are often completely wrong. Two days a go, they said that this would be a very rainy and miserable weekend, due to a storm in the Gulf of Mexico coming this way.
Well, the storm went the other way, so the weather is sunny and hot and miserable instead. The weather here for six months out of the year during hurricane season, is partly sunny, partly cloudy, he ot, with a big chance of rain. That basically covers every day! Hope this helps
No/yes. I say this cause first of all the forcast is told by imperfect humans and we can't blame the forcast if it makes a mistake(nobody and nothing is perfect). Don't get am wrong though I don't like it when the the weather is different than predicted by the forcast and I always tell my friends man I wanna be a weatherman when I grow up because they get paid to lie??...
I do look at weather forecasts in the morning, but I haven't really trusted it for a while because it hasn't been accurate lately. I understand that it is very hard to predict weather since it changes easily, but sometimes it has been way off.
I always make sure to look at the percentage chance before so that I can prepare accordingly.
No, usually not. They often forecast 4 stormy days in a row. Needless to say, usually none of them are stormy. I tend to ignore them, although weather alerts like tornado warning/watch I listen to a lot more carefully, as I would rather be on the safe side in that situation....